See our latest research report on Embracer Group here, where we dig deep into the data from the release of Kingdom Come: Deliverance II.

Potential estimate revisions and Asmodee X date

Estimate revisions—As more data emerges from the release, we believe analysts' estimates will likely be revised upward in the coming weeks. While that is all good, the shift in market perception is more likely to impact the valuation.  

Change in future release perception - Many of the group's latest games have been merely "okay" in terms of commercial success, but not much more than that. A strong release for KC:D2 could alter the overall perception of the future game quality from Embracer, which would matter more to the company's valuation than the single release itself.

Asmodee X date - Today (February 4th) marks the X date for the rights to receive shares in the Asmodee spin-off. Therefore, the share price will drop by the corresponding value attributed to Asmodee by the market. Simultaneously, a positive reaction to the review scores for KC:D2 is likely. Most research reports estimate Asmodee’s fair value at around 100 SEK per Embracer share; overall, we feel that is quite conservative. We will see the outcome today.

Favorable critic score

The critic review embargo has now been released, and it looks pretty positive. The OpenCritic average currently stands at 89; this can be compared to the first game in the series, which scored 72 and was highly commercially successful.

A high critic score does not make a game a success, but many high-selling AAA games also have high critic scores.

During the past 90 days, only one game (Caves of Qud) has had a higher score than what KC:D2 currently has.

Steam followers, in line with KC:D1

The followers on Steam, which indicates interest levels, are almost exactly at the same level as KC:D1 had at launch. The first game sold about 1 million copies during the launch week across all platforms.

Climbing the charts

When we published the research report, the game had a Steam topseller ranking of 10; today, it has jumped to the number one position in the chart ahead of very notable games. It’s highly likely that a lot of people where waiting to see critic reviews to buy the game.

Conclusion of the release

To sum up, it seems like KC:D2 is heading for a strong release. We do not know if milestone levels of copies sold will be communicated, but it will be exciting to follow along over the coming weeks.